Publication


Hoem, J. M. and Muresan, C.
The Total Marital Fertility Rate and its Extensions
Stockholm research reports in demography, 2010
romania fertility
URL, JabRef BibTex, Abstract
What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed by adding up age-specific marital-fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout the childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, but also shows that when we embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates, patterns of relative risks reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior which are quite robust against model re-specification. This is also true when we replace the age-based TMFR by an alternative duration-based TMFR and extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement. Because the resulting Total Union-type Fertility Rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the Total Fertility Rate, which does not. This highlights the importance of transcending the limitations of conventional published statistics and gives a scope for improving the latter.

Reference


@article{Hoem2010,
  author = {Hoem, J. M. and Muresan, C.},
  title = {The Total Marital Fertility Rate and its Extensions},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {Stockholm research reports in demography},
  volume = {13},
  pages = {1-23},
  keywords = {romania, fertility},
  url = {http://www.suda.su.se/SRRD/SRRD_2010_13.pdf},
  note = {Stockholm University},
  timestamp = {28.09.2011},
  owner = {Andrei},
  language = {English},
  abstract = {What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed by adding up age-specific marital-fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout the childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, but also shows that when we embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates, patterns of relative risks reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior which are quite robust against model re-specification. This is also true when we replace the age-based TMFR by an alternative duration-based TMFR and extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement. Because the resulting Total Union-type Fertility Rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the Total Fertility Rate, which does not. This highlights the importance of transcending the limitations of conventional published statistics and gives a scope for improving the latter.}
}

Subscribe to our Mailing List!

Fill the form below with your contact information to receive our bi-monthly GGP at a glance newsletter.