This paper by Ross Barker and Isabella Buber-Ennser (2024) examines how fertility intentions change over time and the uncertainty surrounding them. Using panel data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) in Austria, France, Hungary, Italy, and Poland, we analyze short- and long-term intentions to have a(nother) child. Authors focus on uncertainty expressed in “probably yes” and “probably not” responses and on changes between survey waves. Descriptive analyses and Sankey diagrams show that about 40% of respondents are uncertain, and half revise their intentions over time - mostly shifting between “probably” categories or adjusting their level of certainty. Childless individuals show the highest uncertainty and revision rates. Multivariate results indicate that partnership and employment contexts are linked to both gradual and larger changes in intentions. Overall, fertility intentions follow a spectrum of certainty from “definitely not” to “definitely yes,” often preceding childbirth.
Barker, R. & Buber-Ennser, I. (2024). Uncertainty and flexibility of fertility intentions. Advances in Life Course Research, 61, 100618 DOI
